Two U.S. Air Force B-52 Stratofortress flying in formation from
their base in RAF Fairford, U.K., across Europe and six partner
countries on their mission to bomb Yemen [photo credit: CENTCOM]
Since this podcast was broadcast, there have been major developments:
on 4 May, a Huthi missile reached Ben Gurion airport, wounding 6 people
and demonstrating the seriousness of the threat. This led to vicious
retaliation by Israel on 5 and 6 May when dozens of aircraft destroyed
much of Hodeida port, two cement factories and Sana’a airport among
others. On 6 May, Trump announced that the US was ending its airstrikes
on Yemen after 53 days and more than 1000 airstrikes which had failed to
stop Huthi missiles and drones targeting Israel, though only one
actually landed in a strategic site.
Oman mediated this agreement demonstrating that secrecy and
discretion are possible in the Trump administration despite Signalgate.
Both sides claimed victory and only concerns Red Sea navigation and
mutual US-Huthi attacks. It makes no mention of Huthi strikes on Israel,
which continue and which the Huthis have explicitly stated are excluded
from this agreement. Israeli leaders heard the news alongside the rest
of the world during a White House public meeting between Trump and new
Canadian Prime Minister Carney. Trump’s forthcoming visit to GCC states
is a significant element in this decision.
Donald Trump said in a tweet that the US would, quote,
‘completely annihilate the Huthi barbarians’. Trump's not going to be
able to do that, is he?
It's pretty unlikely he'll manage to do that. We are even seeing US
publications mentioning that he's got himself into another unwinnable
war. But it's also worth remembering because it really does not feature
frequently in the media that since the 15th of March the US has been
bombing Yemen every night, not just the same old places the Saudis,
Emiratis, Brits and Americans have been bombing up to now, but a whole
load of other places.
Is there a breakdown between military and civilian targets? We've
just seen that a migrant detention facility was hit with at least 68
killed and many more wounded. Is the US targeting civilians?
They are hitting civilian targets. No detailed information is
available. The 18 April strike on Ras Issa for example, one of the ports
near Hodeidah, killed more than 80 and wounded more than 200 mostly
civilians. You could say oil imports are both civilian and military, but
reducing the availability of fuel fundamentally impacts the
availability of food and all other necessities.
We know the Huthis have shot down seven US MQ 9 drones in the
past month. Beyond that, what has been the Huthi response? Are the
Huthis, for example, continuing to menace vessels in the Red Sea because
Trump said you've got to stop that?
The American line is that they want freedom of navigation in the Red
Sea. They have not said that they want to stop the Huthis firing
missiles and drones towards Israel nor that they want to solve the
Yemeni crisis. The Huthi response has been firing missiles and drones at
Israel and US military craft in the Red Sea. Quite a few Huthi missiles
have got close enough for the Israelis for sirens to be sounded. None
of them have actually hit anything or hurt anybody at this point, but
they are firing them off on an almost daily basis.
In late January, the Trump administration designated Ansar Allah a
foreign terrorist organisation - FTO is the acronym - and in the order
specifically directed USAID to effectively end any aid that went to the
Huthis. What is the impact on the Yemeni people of that?
The complete cutting of USAID and humanitarian support via the UN has
a fundamental impact. To start with the FTO, the Americans have now
sanctioned two Sana’a based banks and most of the Sana’a based banks
have now said they will try to relocate to Aden, which is something we
discussed in Arab Digest.
Most importantly, one of the two banks sanctioned is the
International Bank of Yemen, the biggest bank in Yemen. This impacts
remittances. It also reduces imports and thus economic activity. A lot
of people were employed by the humanitarian sector, and all the UN
organisations have already dismissed staff. The World Food Program last
year received 62% of its funds from the US. This year none of the very
reduced amount received came from the US. This has an immediate impact
on people throughout Yemen, not just in Huthi controlled areas.
Let's go back 10 years, Helen. Remind us what the Saudis thought
they were going to achieve and why do you think that they failed so
badly?
We're now into the 11th year of this internationalised war. Mohammed
bin Salman had just become minister of defence and his father king in
January 2015 so this was the beginning of the MBS era. The thinking was,
‘we have the best, most advanced and most expensive US weaponry, we've
got more weaponry from the Brits, the French and everyone else. This is a
bunch of guys in the mountains and it will take less than six weeks for
us to bring them to heel.’ He thought he would defeat them, bring back
the then internationally recognised government [IRG] of President Hadi
and put an end to this rebellion.
Now, 10 years later, there's absolutely no doubt that that did not
succeed ,there's many reasons why it failed. The first was that the
assumptions were simply incorrect. You don't get rid of a popular or
very locally based movement with air strikes. Many other countries have
proved that. The Huthis could appeal to the people to resist the
external aggressor, bringing a lot of people into their fold, not
necessarily supporters of Huthi ideology, but people who wanted to
defend their land.
Another factor is the extraordinary weakness of the IRG under Hadi
and in the last three years the Presidential Leadership Council. While
the divisions within the anti Huthi group are enormous, the Huthis obey
their leader. The Huthis have also built up their military competence
enormously since this war started.
How important a factor has been the extent to which Iran is
arming and backing the Huthis, and was that something else that MBS
underestimated?
I'm not sure that MBS underestimated this because at the time Iranian
involvement was minimal. A few years earlier, Ali Abdullah Saleh tried
to get international support against the Huthis by claiming Iranian
involvement, nobody took him seriously, simply because there was none.
Iranian involvement has been twofold, supply of advanced technology for
weaponry enabled Huthi missiles and drones to reach Israel, and oil
deliveries easing the financial situation. There is also military
training and advice. I’'m not sure the Iranians are happy about the
Huthi attacks on Israel. This is not something that's often said, but my
feeling is that the support is reluctant.
What is daily life like for people in Huthiland? And how difficult is it just to get by on a day to day basis?
It's extremely difficult. Salaries are rarely paid and the economy
has largely collapsed. The WFP stopped distributing aid to something
like eight or 9 million people in Huthi controlled areas since January
2024. The UN and others have reduced their involvement after the Huthis
arrested about 60 humanitarian workers in Jun 2024.
Yemen was for many years described as the world's worst humanitarian
situation. It lost this title not because of improvements in Yemen, but
because of dramatic deterioration first of all in Gaza, but also in
Sudan and even Somalia. The reduction of aid is not just from USAID, but
also from various other countries, including the UK, which shamefully
has reduced its contribution to international aid from 0.5 to 0.3%
recently.
What about those people outside of Huthi control? Is the situation for them a little easier?
Not really. Of course they are not being bombed by the US on a daily
basis. That makes an enormous difference. But if you're looking at the
economic situation it's not that different. But what makes life more
difficult there is that the level of daily security is much lower in IRG
areas because of factional fighting between the different groups.
Can you say something about that situation, the water crisis right now in Yemen?
The water crisis is fundamental for Yemen, regardless of war or a
political solution. Yemen uses 1/3 more water annually than is
replenished, unreplaceable fossil water. Close to 70% of Yemenis live in
rural areas and a bit more than half of them depend on agriculture. So
climate change and mismanagement are worsening the situation. Meanwhile
irrigated agriculture benefits those who can afford to drill their wells
deeper depriving those people who are dependent on the shallow wells,
usually the poorer farmers.
In cities the water sanitation infrastructures are in advanced stages
of collapse, impacting not only on the quantity of water, but its
quality and sources of supply are drying up.
There was some hope for an end to the civil war. With this latest intervention is a peaceful solution once again slipping away?
Just before the Gaza war started, the Huthis and the Saudis were on
the point of reaching an agreement which would have formally ended Saudi
involvement. Events in the last 18 months have prevented the conclusion
of this agreement. Another element which is becoming increasingly
obvious is the United Nations’ impotence. The UN Special Envoy’s main
achievement has been the six-months truce in 2022 which remains largely
in place as there is no Saudi and Emirati active military involvement in
Yemen.
I don't think the US strikes will persuade the Huthis to stop what
they're doing. As with many other things in the region the solution
comes with an end to the Gaza war, which is not as immediate prospect as
far as I can tell.
Yemen is increasingly forgotten in the multiplicity of horrific
crises that the world and the region in particular are going through.
But it does need to be remembered, particularly, now 30 plus million
people in Yemen are suffering on a daily basis.
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